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| Percent of Labor Force Unemployed for 27 weeks or more |
This November will be an especially challenging time to be an incumbent with long-term unemployment at a post-war high. With those unemployed for more than 27 weeks representing 4% of the workforce, we are in uncharted territory when it comes to voter dissatisfaction with the status quo. There will be lots of commentary about Democrats vs. Republicans vs. Tea Party extremists, but the overriding theme will be "throw the bums out."
It's well-known that recessions are generally not kind to incumbents; and according to the NBER, the recession officially ended in July 2009. But a quick glance at the chart above shows that rising levels of the long-term unemployed were associated with the incumbent party losing the White House in 1960, 1980 and 1992.
Incumbents can take some comfort from the slight tick down in the long-term unemployment rate over the past few months, but with the absolute level nearly double the '80 - '81 peak, November 2 promises to be a bitter night for incumbents from both parties.
Source: St Louis Federal Reserve
I would like to disagree with you, but am afraid many established legislators will suffer on Nov.2. The molasses-slow conventional political process is unacceptable to a populace feeling the pain of economic pressures TODAY.
ReplyDeleteWhat worries me more about who may be thrown out is who may be voted in, though...I pray that the historical ignorance of the electorate is somehow upended this go-round, and the voters entering booths across the country will be acting from more informed and enlightened positions than usual. A feeble hope, perhaps, but I will hold on to it for the next couple of weeks...
While "it's the economy, stupid" may be an overarching concern to voters, I believe that just scratches the surface of what is really going on. I don't think all incumbents will be on the sacrificial table this time around. Rather those in the Democrat party (party in power), who have brought us skyrocketing unemployment, deficit spending, Obamacare, and increased taxes to name a few, that will be held accountable. At the end of the day the "throw the bums out" theory may be more precisely defined as "throw the bums out who caused these problems".
ReplyDeleteYes, unemployment is high, but the total of unemployed and underemployed is approaching 20%...roughly 1 out of every 5 workers today cannot find work . Not only that, the rate of new job growth is no where near sufficient to begin recovery. People are scared.
Over the last 2 years the deficit has averaged over $1.3 trillion per year, thus increasing the national debt by $2.6 trillion (that's a lot of zero's!!!!). And that is just the beginning....deficits are projected to continue above $1 trillion per year going forward. The current debt of $13.5 trillion (not including another $50 trillion of unfunded liabilities) will continue to grow if this spending rate continues. People are mad.
Obamacare is unpopular. Government take over of health care does 4 things; it mandates coverage, adds people to the entitlement rolls, increases cost and reduces the quaity of healthcare. The voters will show their displeasure over the way it was constructed, passed and it's negative results. People are angry and feel powerless.
The Bush tax cuts will soon expire. We will see the return of higher taxes across the board...on individuals, and on small businesses who are backbone of this economy. Families are struggling and increasing the tax burden will put more pressure into their already precarious situation. It will do nothing to stimulate the economic growth we sorely need.
So, you have a scared, mad, perceived powerless and overtaxed electorate. There is a broader anger out there among voters about the intrusion of government in their lives. I believe an anger much more complex than just unemployment numbers and historical trends from past elections. For the first time ever in the history of this country people believe that their children will not be better off than they are. That is astounding. If you step back and look at what is really going on, it is fiscal insanity and a declining culture of personal responsibility which made America great. The voters will decide what party is best positioned to turn this sinking ship around...and I predict it will be not be both parties who suffer equally.
Debbie -
ReplyDeleteI am sure you're right that the Democrats will suffer more, both because they have the most incumbents at risk and as the party in power they'll be held more responsible for the flailing state of the economy.
And, personally, I think the White House flubbed it by focusing so much energy and political capital on health care reform while blaming the economy on the preceding administration.
It will be interesting on November 2nd.