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| Percent of Labor Force Unemployed for 27 weeks or more |
This November will be an especially challenging time to be an incumbent with long-term unemployment at a post-war high. With those unemployed for more than 27 weeks representing 4% of the workforce, we are in uncharted territory when it comes to voter dissatisfaction with the status quo. There will be lots of commentary about Democrats vs. Republicans vs. Tea Party extremists, but the overriding theme will be "throw the bums out."
It's well-known that recessions are generally not kind to incumbents; and according to the NBER, the recession officially ended in July 2009. But a quick glance at the chart above shows that rising levels of the long-term unemployed were associated with the incumbent party losing the White House in 1960, 1980 and 1992.
Incumbents can take some comfort from the slight tick down in the long-term unemployment rate over the past few months, but with the absolute level nearly double the '80 - '81 peak, November 2 promises to be a bitter night for incumbents from both parties.
Source: St Louis Federal Reserve
